What does the future of mobility look like?This question was explored by a group of leading thinkers from science, politics and social movements as part of our project “Future for all – fair. ecological. feasible.”
The following blog post is not a summary of the content of the future workshop, but was inspired by it and incorporates many suggestions.
In 2048 there will be: car-free cities and village centers, a different concept of vacation, trains with meeting spaces, bicycle streets with ecological shopping opportunities
In 2048 there will no longer be: a strong car lobby, particulate matter pollution in city centers, short-haul flights, mass tourism
Talktalktalk – the political talk show on Monday
The image flickers to life, showing a talk show, the camera pans to the stage, and the presenter Manny-Oda Delitzsch (MOD) addresses the viewers:
AGAINST: Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Talktalktalk, the political talk show on Monday evenings. In 2020, ten years ago, the Berlin Senate decided that Berlin should become Germany's first car-free city. Bremen, Munich, Essen, Cologne, and many others followed suit. Stuttgart and Frankfurt are now the only municipalities that still allow private car use. And the car-free trend continues, spreading to rural areas: In addition to the Wendland region, the structurally transformed areas of the former lignite mining regions, and tourist areas, the number of municipalities opting for car-free village centers is growing rapidly. Joining me in the studio today are the Green Party's Minister of Transport, Vahide Mousa (Minister of Transport), the activist Angela Kirios (Freedom Party of Austria), and the Executive Director of the Federation of German Industries, Bernato-Dimitri Ingsheim (Federation of German Industries). Minister, how did this development come about in car-loving Germany?
IN M: Well, of central importance was certainly the ecological tax and financial reform in 2019, as well as, of course, the groundbreaking decision of the red-red-green Senate in Berlin at that time.
AK: That's a rather one-sided view, though. What they're overlooking is the role of civil society – for example, the Fridays for Future demonstrations since 2018, the diverse actions against car manufacturers, the quarterly street occupations in Berlin and other major cities, the work of local NGOs, and the Critical Mass rides. Added to that are the numerous scandals that have shown just how deeply intertwined politics and the automotive industry are.
IN M: But they shouldn't overlook the role of politics either…
AGAINST: Let's take this a step further and look at the effects of this development. Mr. Ingsheim, how do you assess them?
BDI: What we have seen since then is a massive economic downturn in car-free cities, supported by figures on regional value creation, and a collapse of the automotive industry with corresponding layoffs and unemployment. The car was simply made unattractive to a large number of people without any consideration of the consequences.
AGAINST: Ms. Kirios, is your assessment also so negative?
AK: Not at all. Honestly, I don't know what negative consequences Mr. Ingsheim is talking about. I think the surveys in car-free cities speak volumes, and that aligns with my personal experience. It's a completely new way of life; there's so much more space in the cities that people use to meet up, spend time together, and children have room to play. Overall, it's become much quieter and safer in the city.
BDI: Of course, one can try to sugarcoat such an impoverishment program, but the numbers speak for themselves: incomes have fallen and people are less mobile.
AK: They drive less because the shops, green spaces, and generally a livable environment are right in the middle of their neighborhood; that's not the same as being less mobile.
AGAINST: Madam Minister, your constituency is near Stuttgart, a region that is, or at least was, dominated by the automotive industry. How do you see this development?
IN M: I see both sides. Of course, people in Stuttgart, Wolfsburg, and other places are feeling the effects of the decline in production, which we are trying to counteract with structural change measures. After an initially bumpy phase, not all, but many former automotive industry employees view the transformation positively. Some jobs were saved through shorter working hours. Some have found employment in the area of new mobility structures, in the production of electric vehicles, as cargo bike drivers, or in public transport. Others are very happy working in the care sector; in Baden-Württemberg, the "Care Instead of Traffic" initiative was launched for this purpose. Overall, we were able to learn a great deal from the structural change in the lignite mining regions. On the other hand, and this naturally affects me personally here in Berlin, I also perceive many of the positive effects that Ms. Kirios mentioned. I should add, however, that it wasn't just the car ban, but also the expansion of public transport and cycling infrastructure. The reactivation of inner-city businesses was also crucial, making it easier to provide services in the city center or neighborhoods.
BDI: What you call "reactivation of inner-city businesses" has led to massive declines in business in the outer districts because nobody can drive by anymore!
IN M: I admit that we haven't found the right answers everywhere immediately, but from a societal perspective, I see the development as positive.
AGAINST: Mr. Ingsheim, despite all the negative economic consequences, shouldn't you still acknowledge that this measure was necessary from an ecological perspective? The figures you so often cite speak for themselves.
BDI: I'm not going to sit here and claim that car-free cities have nothing to do with reducing greenhouse gases and particulate matter. What I want to emphasize is that we need a balance between unhindered driving pleasure, running assembly lines, generous road construction, and, uh, ecology. With the car ban, we haven't maintained this balance; instead, we've sacrificed the livelihoods of many drivers on the altar of climate protection!
AGAINST: At the same time, Ver.di expresses a very positive view and speaks of a boom in the area of public transport.
BDI: Yes, Ver.di is pleased, IG Metall sees things somewhat differently.
AGAINST: We've talked a lot about cities now, what about mobility in rural areas? Do you see similar trends there?
BDI: If I may…
AGAINST: Please, Mr. Ingsheim.
BDI: The BDI sees the car as a reliable guarantor of mobility for people who do not live in cities and who naturally want to participate in cultural and social life outside their village.
AK: They forget all the people who are physically unable to drive themselves; they have long been left behind and are obviously of no concern to the BDI…
IN M: But not the ministry; for example, we have set up the program “Every village has its own carpooling bench” and are currently examining whether more villages can be connected to the rail network.
AGAINST: Uh, there's a question from the audience over there.
BFA: Good day, my name is Berta Fried-Anders. I have been involved in rail transport for a long time and am very dissatisfied with the efforts of the Ministry of Transport, as well as the state ministries. If rail transport in rural areas is truly to become an alternative to the car, then attractive train stations are needed, along with at least a doubling of railway staff and rail network, attractive trains, for example with compartments for children, but also with cultural programs for adults, meeting spaces for conversation, board games and workshops, and much more.
AGAINST: Mr. Ingsheim, that sounds like a great infrastructure program for you.
BDI: That might sound good, but who's going to pay for that? Without having done the math, I consider it dubious.
AK: I agree with Ms. Fried-Anders and would like to add what else is needed: attractive jobs in co-working spaces so that living in the countryside becomes a real option for many people again. Also, bike paths with small businesses. And finally, an environmentally friendly option is needed for the last few kilometers, be it rentable e-bikes or autonomous microcars.
AGAINST: There's another voice from the audience back there.
MS: Good evening, my name is Max Sommer, and I wanted to tell you briefly about my village – we've already started the transport revolution on our own initiative. We reopened our village shop together and set up a collectively organized self-help bicycle repair workshop, complete with cargo bike rentals and cargo bike building workshops.
AGAINST: It seems to me there is already more activity in the countryside – is politics lagging behind here?
IN M: I expressly support such local initiatives and see our role precisely there – to create the right framework to enable such activities. This is also part of our "Mobile Village" program, in which we work with various organizations, citizens, and businesses to explore innovative, environmentally friendly mobility options for villages. It's clear that we can only replace the private car if we replace it with a well-coordinated mix of alternatives, including car-sharing, autonomous electric taxis, traditional public transport, and cycling.
AGAINST: Given the current situation, I'd like to address long-distance travel. We've seen a lot in this area in recent years: protests against mass tourism in Venice and Athens, regular blockades of cruise ships, airport blockades, and, of course, the public debate about bans on short-haul flights, fueled by the so-called "celebrities without tickets." Now, Ms. Kirios, you're calling for flight quotas for every person living in Europe. Is that really compatible with a liberal, cosmopolitan, globalized society?
AK: Yes, in the short term we are calling for a limit of one flight every three years, and in the long term, considering the high emissions and their significant climate impact, quotas of a maximum of one flight every 10 years. We are aware that this represents a restriction. But at the same time, we are advocating for alternatives, such as the massive expansion of night trains in Europe and sustainable sailing. We also support the trend towards sabbaticals and call for more vacation time so that slow travel can once again become part of it. I think we are on the right track, and the strong public support demonstrates this. Furthermore, there are various exceptions for people who have to fly in urgent emergencies, for example, if their families live outside of Europe.
AGAINST: Do you mean the "voluntary non-flyers" who, for example, completely forgo European flights?
AK: Yes, for example, and there are also more and more people outside of Europe…
BDI: We at the BDI view this very critically. Not only have passenger numbers plummeted, but many regional airports have already had to close, with devastating economic consequences for the regions! These are absurd demands that are incompatible with an open society and hinder cultural exchange!
AK: What they seem to completely ignore is the fact that only a fraction of the world's population is able to fly around the world. These quotas are absolutely necessary from an ecological perspective and can help to reduce this inequality.
IN M: We are indeed facing a situation where international air traffic is increasing, and since it is also factored into our national emissions budget, it is jeopardizing our national CO2 targets. The ticket tax we introduced in 2020 has unfortunately not been able to reverse this trend. Therefore, we are considering increasing the tax. I also think there are good alternatives, especially for flying within Europe, such as night trains. Where I would disagree with Ms. Kirios is regarding quotas. We want to continue relying on economic instruments. Furthermore, as the Green Party, we also want to ensure that the public administration takes the lead, meaning an amendment to the federal travel expense guidelines…
In a learning space in the year 2048, Karl switches off the projector. The image flickers briefly and then disappears.
Karl: Well, and so on and so forth.
Timo: Why was that so flat?
Karl: As I already told you, it's 18 years old and back then they still recorded in 2-D.
Matthew: What was this Bernato-Dimitri talking about? My father always tells stories about how great the mobility revolution was back then and how we all benefit from it.
Helen: My mother once told me that it used to be bad when there was less work, because everyone had to work 40 hours and then some people couldn't work at all.
Timo: I don't want to be able to work anymore when I grow up.
Karl: Did you notice that nobody talked about freight or passenger zeppelins? Instead, it seemed everyone wanted to drive their own car and fly around. I wonder where they were all so desperate to go.
Timo: Maybe as a joke. Or maybe the roads all went downhill.
Helen: I imagine the cars must have been really uncomfortable, and they wanted to get out of there quickly. In my family, almost everyone only rides a bicycle now, except on vacation or when we visit friends, then we take the train. And last year we sailed to Iceland, which was fantastic.
Karl: It's the same for me, except my grandpa can't ride a bike very well anymore, so he takes the bus and train a lot. And when he visits us here in the countryside, he often orders an autonomous taxi or a bicycle rickshaw. When I was little, we once flew on holiday; it was incredibly loud and the airport was so dreary, completely different from train stations.
Matthew: It's totally bizarre that back then they apparently preferred flying to taking the train, even within Europe!
Timo: On my last train journey, my brother took me to the youth compartment, where Star Wars XII – Rise of the Ewoks was playing!
Karl: Oh man, I wouldn't have pedaled for him.
Timo: I thought it was great, plus there was a scoop of ice cream for every half hour of electric pedaling.
Helen: I'll hop on my bike too, see you tomorrow. Thanks for the film, Karl!
Karl: Okay, then let's get some ice cream on the way home, shall we?
Matthew: Okay, let's go.
Photos: Jackman Chiu
