How can Germany decarbonize its economy and become climate-neutral?
This question is often discussed by politicians, scientists, and businesses from a technical perspective. Sustainable concepts include solutions such as electromobility, hydrogen strategies, energy storage, and precision agriculture. Scientific scenarios, such as those developed by the Federal Environment Agency or agora Energy Transition .
There are other approaches, too. For example, a climate-friendly future for all, which relies on fundamental change and takes ecological and social problems into account. In the book “Future for all – a vision for 2048” This change is made tangible and in the study “Societal Transformation Scenario” scientifically based.
Germany 2050 – the decarbonized country
It is the year 2050 and Germany has managed to reduce its emissions by over 95%. An important component for this was the complete Electrification of the heating, transport and industrial sectors – either directly via Electric motors and heat pumps, or the production of synthetic fuels, which have since been used in industry and transport, for example. For this purpose, water is split into hydrogen and oxygen using renewable electricity, and in a second process step, the hydrogen is converted with carbon into hydrocarbons, such as methane or gasoline. The so-called "new electricity consumers" (heat pumps, electric cars) have led to the Electricity demand has now increased by 60% To meet this demand, a massive expansion of renewable energies to the triple the amount of 2020 necessary.
To increase cost efficiency, the expansion was no longer carried out through guaranteed remuneration for electricity from renewable sources, but rather through government tenders. The actor with the lowest offer is awarded the contract to install a certain amount of renewable capacity. The end of the feed-in tariff thus also resulted in the end of the citizens' energy transition. Today, 80% of the electricity supply is in the hands of six large companies, four of which are former fossil energy giants. Resistance to new photovoltaics and especially to wind turbines steadily increased during the expansion. Ultimately, however, the large corporations against local protest and bring about changes, such as changes to distance rules, as well as the tendering of lucrative expansion volumes for the offshore sector.
However, due to the high energy losses in the production of synthetic gases and fuels for industry and transport, German production of renewable electricity will not be sufficient in 2050. Therefore, 80% of synthetic fuels importedAlthough production abroad is 100% from renewable sources, this is still being criticized by environmental organizations. Exporting countries also have to comply with climate protection targets and, in turn, use technologies for so-called negative emissions This involves the extraction of CO2 from exhaust gases or the air and its storage underground, e.g., in empty gas fields or other geological formations. This last step, the safe storage of CO2, is being questioned by environmental organizations following several scandals, and leaks in the pipeline transport of CO2 have been criticized. Finally, strict climate targets and the high electricity demand due to electrification have also led to a Nuclear power renaissance For example, France exports synthetic fuels made from renewable electricity to Germany and uses synthetic fuel produced with nuclear power itself. Finally, there are also Criticism of electricity imports from North Africa, where European governments have built large-scale renewable energy production capacities in cooperation with local partners. However, experts doubt the promise that the African partners will also benefit significantly from this cooperation, citing the working conditions on site and the high water requirements of the plants.
The expansion of renewable energy is Exit from coal mining The state's funding programs have led to an expansion of infrastructure in the former coal regions. However, these projects offered no long-term prospects, so that to this day many people are moving away from these areas and right-wing populist parties are gaining a lot of support.
The transport sector will look similar in 2050 as it does today. Despite initial problems, the expansion of electromobility has gained momentum, supported by large subsidies for German car manufacturers. The share of electric cars is around 98%, with approximately 45 million vehicles. The transition has led to a massive increase in demand for rare earths and other resources which environmental, human rights and post-colonial organizations criticize.
The energy consumption for heat could be reduced by Insulation of buildings The remaining heat demand is met primarily by heat pumps and electric heating. To stimulate energy-efficient renovations, massive subsidy programs were launched, primarily used by large real estate companies, which pass on the modernization costs to their tenants.
2048 – Climate justice at last
It is the year 2048 and we have the Structures of energy supply and distribution completely socializedThis means that energy supply is planned democratically and locally. While there is still a national government, we decide which needs are important and how we meet them at a smaller level: the neighborhood, the village, the district, or the region. Grassroots democratic councils exist for this purpose.
The need for Mobility, heat and electricity are part of basic services, which is available to everyone and costs nothing. It is provided by public and solidarity-based companies. The energy demand is covered 100% by renewable energies. Transition to the 1250-watt society important. The 1250 Watt Society stipulates that each person should consume on average no more than 1250 watts of primary energy or 10950 kWh per year – about a quarter of the consumption of 2020 This goal was achieved in 2038, not through coercion, but as a result of cultural and structural change.
The cultural change was: away from material wealth towards time wealthThis includes the principle of sharing rather than owning, reducing paid work to 20 hours, slowing down life, and focusing on cooperation rather than competition. This becomes very concrete when it comes to travel: While the goal used to be to recover as quickly as possible from the stresses of everyday life, today's everyday life is much more relaxed. Travel is therefore more about getting to know other regions, cultures, and people over a longer period of time. A slower journey by train or solar-powered sailing ship is often willingly accepted for this.
But cultural change alone does not create a climate-friendly society. A radical reduction in our energy consumption also requires many structural changes in the economyThe care sector (i.e., nursing, medicine, healthcare, and childcare) has been significantly expanded. Resource-intensive industrial production, on the other hand, has been significantly reduced. Specifically, heavy industry, the automotive industry, mining, and construction are virtually nonexistent. Furthermore, entire industries and service sectors that did not contribute to meeting important needs or have simply become redundant have disappeared. These include the defense, advertising, and insurance industries, as well as large parts of the financial sector.
Heat demand is much lower today than it used to be. This is partly due to less heated living space. communal living led, but also the “Food centers” that exist in every neighborhoodHere, everyone can use workshops, playrooms, rehearsal rooms, laundry areas, and studios. On the other hand, the buildings were, of course, contemporary insulation based on renewable insulation materialsThe remaining energy demand is covered by resource-saving, simple technologies such as solar or geothermal energy.
In the mobility sector, energy consumption has also fallen sharply, as there are far fewer cars and planes on the road. On average, every German flies only once every three years. Motorized private transport (i.e. cars) is now the exception; instead, there are local supply structures that are accessible to everyone on foot or by bike. Furthermore, there is a well-developed, free local and long-distance public transport system, with attractive train stations and on-board amenities. We also no longer need the heavy freight traffic of the past, as economic cycles are much more regional. Furthermore, there is a requirement that raw materials and unprocessed food should not be transported over long distances.
There is regional diversity in energy distribution. In some regions, self-sufficient neighborhoods have become a model, while other regions use local grids or are even connected via well-maintained old power grids. The technical side of energy supply is managed by so-called E-nerd collectives (energy service providers) organized. This diverse groups consist of people who share a strong interest in the topic and encourage each other to further their education. Each group is responsible for the energy supply of a region, which means they build and repair wind turbines and photovoltaic panels, and manage the grids.
