Wing beats and bingo cards
I started the new year with a resolution: I want to accept that there will always be at least 10% chaos in my life. For me and many other people, order is an important part of mental hygiene. Chaos often causes uncertainty and fear in us humans. Unfortunately, right-wing forces exploit this to slow down progressive social movements. When we are afraid and paralyzed, we cannot defend ourselves, let alone devise creative solutions to the challenges of our time. Thus, the crisis, as a symptom of our system, simultaneously becomes its self-preservation. But we don't have to be exposed to this. Attempting to prevent chaos completely is doomed to failure. So how can we find a resilient way of dealing with chaos or change our perspective on it?
Chaos theory is located in mathematical physics, or more precisely in dynamics. It describes a theory that explores the relationship between cause and effect in processes with unpredictable outcomes. The phenomena studied extend beyond the realm of physics and also find application in medicine and meteorology, even in areas such as economic research, communications research, or psychology. A particularly popular phenomenon is the "butterfly theory." It describes the sensitivity of nonlinear systems. Or, more succinctly formulated and therefore often quoted: "The flapping of a butterfly's wings in Brazil can trigger a tornado in Texas." This is by no means a matter of chance or fate. The idea that a flapping of a butterfly's wings could trigger anything at all, let alone a consequence the size of a tornado, may seem absurd to us. Indeed, one and the same event would be completely irrelevant if the system were stable. But we know that forest fires can be triggered by even the smallest spark. However, only if the forest is dry. The general condition must therefore be sensitive or unstable!
The butterfly theory also states that infinite precision would be necessary to predict how the system will react based on the beat of its wings. This is about as impossible as predicting IPOs, TikTok trends, or the weather in the long term. And yet, a few overconfident analysts like to pull out their crystal balls every now and then and are absolutely certain that fascism will reign by the next election, that the climate apocalypse is inevitable, or that tomorrow the world will really end. They overlook the fact that these predictions are themselves wing beats that can become self-fulfilling prophecies. Because they potentially trigger behaviors that play into the prophesied futures. If we take a look at meme culture, we notice that the phrase "That wasn't on my bingo card for 20xx" has been used more and more frequently in recent years to illustrate how surprising public events often are. If the weather cannot be reliably forecast for longer than three days, how can we predict long-term political and social developments?
What can we learn from chaos research if we want to create a world free of power structures? We often feel overwhelmed by this task. We know that, due to globalization, most crises can only be managed globally. Our social system is characterized by multiple crises occurring in ever-increasing succession and is therefore not exactly blessed with stability. But that doesn't have to be a disadvantage. On the contrary: An unstable system means that every small action has the potential to have a major impact. Moreover, if the flapping of a butterfly's wings can trigger a tornado, it can also prevent one.
Either way, instability or chaos is the essential prerequisite for the emergence of anything new. Evolution can only occur when linear processes are interrupted, when atoms do not return to their predictable positions forever. In short: chaos creates spaces of possibility. Accepting chaos as part of orderly processes is by no means a plea to accept the suffering in the world as a necessary evil or to surrender to powerlessness. On the contrary: all actors in political change – be they journalists, activists, scientists, or artists – can, with their small contribution, trigger something that – to put it very modestly – fundamentally changes the world as we know it. This is not naive hope, but the courage to believe that a more just world is possible and that we can play a genuine part in it.